Arrowhead Asset Management Investment Newsletter (January, 2025)

 

What to expect under the New Trump 2.0 MAGA “Autocracy"

For almost 50% of voters on November 6, what was more dispiriting than Trump’s Prez victory over the in-denial old imperialist Democrats is what his win says about the American body politic and the fear, rage, and desperation of the American voter.

Leading up to this election, once again Trump’s venality, his bigotry, his dog whistle racism, and his callous disregard for the truth - were on flamboyant display for American voters.

Yet more than half of America’s 2024 voters didn’t recoil against Trump’s tired conspiratorial demagoguery. Instead, voters relished in Trump’s carnival barker “tonic” of his MAGA remedy to solve the problem of America’s two-party leadership decline.

Not surprisingly, the solutions and the scapegoats behind Trump’s solutions are both economically incoherent and socially regressive.

Yes, tariffs are very inflationary and are directly paid by consumers. So Trump’s tariff strategy is incoherent. And Trump’s plan to deport millions of undocumented immigrants - most of whom do the jobs Americans refuse to do - is inflationary and could create essential consumer product shortages (another inflationary effect).

So by approving Trump 2.0, slightly more than 50% of voters bought a ticket on the MAGA techBro / finance billionaire train to an inflationary English language version of a Russia-like oligarchy.

The MAGA 2.0 Swamp?

Remember how during the lead up to Trump’s 2016 Prez victory, he bragged endlessly about how he was a “self-funder” during his first run for office – that he wasn’t beholden to the “elitist swamp.”

Well, today, Trump 2.0 is now at the self-interest mercy of numerous anti-government techBro billionaires and the big finance elites - who have figured out that if they pander to Trump’s fantasy of being one of them - an “above the law” rich guy - they can easily buy all the political economic favors they want from the MAGA politicians in Congress.

This brood includes some of the richest hustlers around - like the poly-progenitive Elon Musk.

What to expect in the next 2-4 years

First, it’s important to understand that the Republicans in general - especially the conspiracy prone MAGA Republicans - hate government, mainly because they are terrified of government accountability.

And if we add in the fact that the MAGA Republicans are not good at public sector governance - just like we saw when the Covid pandemic hit Trump’s America in 2020 (20% of global Covid deaths with only 5% of the world’s population), it’s not hard to see what could happen in the next four years.

Regarding the U.S. economy, it’s important to understand who the Republican Party really represents: The GOP represents the “ Employers” of America, not the workers or the employees of America.

Of course, to further enrich the powerful Employer class, the super rich “employers” working with the Trump MAGA agenda also want to privatize all the government services they can, by replacing those services with ultimately higher cost (more inflation) fees and subscriptions.

Second, the Trump / Vance billionaire led Project 2025 is simply a big money right wing policy and government decimation program – written by the free markets evangelists running the Heritage Foundation.

Clearly, even though Trump lied during the campaign about his knowledge of Project 2025, it is fashioned to be Trump’s road map “to finish the job” he started in his first term.

In other words, any protective consumer or investor legislation these “masters of the universe” don’t like - including the agencies that also protect Trump’s MAGA voters - will be minimized, dismantled, or defanged through pro-business takeovers, deep staff reductions, and immunity from legal accountability.

In effect, Trump’s newly formed MAGA corporate autocracy will do anything and everything they can to destroy what remains of American big business / corporate oversight, by first purging the government regulators, then the courts and the universities.

(Note: the corporate network and cable news media has already been relegated to Trump-appeasing propaganda entities)

Once again, under Trump 2.0, will 2024 Trump voting employees and workers of America be angry and feel betrayed (again) when they see that Trump 2.0 has been just another alternating two-party voter manipulation con? It’s a relevant question to ponder for mid-term elections and the 2028 national elections!

Targeting “Enemies” Within

It’s also relevant to remember that Trump has offered local police forces preemptive immunity from prosecution in cases of abusive violence - either against undocumented immigrants during his proposed purges or when his security apparatus goes after domestic protesters.

Watch how Trump and his enforcers manage his plan for the mass deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants. Those tactics will paint a clearer picture of whether Americans are going to see violent repression tactics during Trump’s longer-term policing policies.

Healthy Resistance - or passivity?

Here is where the American public has its most important and most challenging role to play in the next four years, should Trump implement his undocumented immigration and bogus political “enemy” purges.

Americans may need to ask themselves:

  1. Am I going to denounce and/or report my neighbor(s) because they are either 1) not documented, 2) gay (or LBGTQ), 3) too liberal or “woke”, or 4) feel betrayed/ angered by Trump’s actual economic  agenda?
  2. Will small and medium size business owners in the construction, food service, agricultural, and various service industries be willing to pay the higher wages and higher expenses necessary to pay “legal” American workers (if they can find any) needed to replace the deported immigrants?
  3. Am I willing to limit my lifestyle by boycotting complicit companies who are directly profiting from the implementation of a potentially repressive domestic agenda?

It’ll be interesting to see how Americans react in the next four years. If the election results are any indication, it’ll be difficult to be hopeful!

Your investments

Finally, I strongly suggest you don’t fret about your retirement investments. 

The built-in government incompetence we may see in some form usually starts to show up as economic chaos anywhere from one to two years (before the “sh-t hits the fan”).

In fact, stock markets are usually the last national institution to crater, especially because it’s the super-rich employer class who run the stock markets – perennially protecting their wealth at the expense of US employees, workers, and the possibility of a fair wage economy.

Going forward, focus your energy on the well-being of your children, grandchildren, especially if Trump’s mass immigration purges are put in motion. Protect your in-laws and their offspring who may be caught up in the indiscriminate purges that will surely occur somewhere.

Of course, Happy New Year to you and your family!

 DandS political cartoon