Within the global stock market universe, going foward we will be investing mostly in ETFs and traditional mutual funds of assets classes, sectors, and industries within sectors, depending on whether the investments are in a market uptrend (or not):
- Stock ETFs and funds of diversified US and global large / midsize / small companies;
Stock ETFs and funds of US and global "sector and industry-specific" investments;
ETFs and funds of US and global real estate investment trusts (REITs) - for income;
ETFs of “Price-only” global commodities (gold, oil, natural gas, commodities, etc.)
Regarding income, we may invest similarly in US and global ETFs and funds of bond asset classes and global regions, assuming these income-focused investments are in a bond market uptrend.
When interest rates are one the rise (like now), income investments are not in favor. Its best to wait for aggressive income investing until central banks cease raising rates.
Related to the above investment plan, in our Fidelity higher education ORP/403b portfolios, we will be using the same strategy. Of course our ORP/403b portfolios are limited to the investment choices allowed by your educational employer. Fortunately, performance wise, employer-specific investment limitations have not curtailed the long-term growth or risk profile of your Fidelity ORP/403b portfolios under our management.
Finally, in a few of our IRA and brokerage portfolios, we will only be investing in individual stocks that are operating to address or solve an important global issue (to be defined by our research). With the stock markets possibly maturing into the latter stage of this current bull market, individual stocks are becoming more risky and more volatile.
At this time, we want to limit risk rather than exacerbate risk. Hence, individual stocks are more vulnerable to losses, especially every three months when they report their quarterly earnings.
Understanding How the Stock Markets "Discount Future Growth"
Let me clarify what "how the stock markets discount future growth" means.
Essentially, the phrase means that current price valuations we now see in the global stock markets have already incorporated most of the "good future growth" news they can either imagine or fabricate into future stock prices - something like six months into the future.
Of course there will be some short-term economic or corporate news items that will continue to create "noise" stock price adjustments in the future.
Nevertheless, given that today's stock market prices are probably "fully valued" for the next six months, we need to consider making the following market adjustments as this Update is being written:
1) Systematically reduce the overall portfolio percentages of our current growth investments (that have already done well for us);
2) Prudently rotate some of our 'growth" money into investments that are starting to attract new institutional money.
As needed, we will immediately make investment portfolio adjustments as conditions change.
Please contact me if you have any questions about this Strategy brief - or your current Fidelity portfolios.